Author: Peter Berger
Date: 12:02:11 10/26/03
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On October 26, 2003 at 13:15:41, Uri Blass wrote: <snip> >>>>It was a surprisingly one-sided match where Movei was without any real chances. >>> >>>From looking at few game it seems that movei had chances but blundered. >> >>OK, agreed :). But the games showed me that until movei has improved further in >>the endgame this opponent is just too tough, and it's better to try others >>first. > >I am not sure >I expected a win for Genius2 but a smaller win. > >Remember also that 6.5-1.5 is not a significant result >Junior was leading 5-0 against Fritz and Fritz won the match. OK, I can't resist. My statistics is extremely rusty and I am lazy (there have been some posts by Dieter B. some time ago that had some maths in Monte Carlo experiments). But the normal distribution might be a bad guess for engine matches. 6.5-1.5 can be done in different ways, e.g. like in the match, or 5 wins and 3 draws - the latter suggests a potentially better performance I think. I am sure you know what I am talking about. The movei- Genius match is very close to being statistically significant (with 95% margin), even more as the single win was just book (that's for the humans ;) ) When it is about the Junior-Fritz qualifier, I was surprised that there was little discussion about the results/games (other than conspiracy theories :) ). My theory is slightly different than bad luck. You can see the phenomenon nicely and to the extreme in the SSDF Hiarcs games. A book has to be well prepared to deal with the "optimal" book learner settings of the ChessBase interface, and it is my impression that only the Fritz book really is. The learner works fine with a wide default book of GM games in general - for a manual book there is some danger that lines that are supposed to be only used rarely turn up much more often than intended. For manual games played for fun, it's also a practical decision. In case movei smashes other opponents there can always be another go against Genius 2 - it would be a waste of time to try to get everything done in a statistical significant way, when alternatives might produce more interesting data :). Cheers, Peter
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