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Subject: Re: Vegas odds on Fritz Vs Kramnik match

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 07:06:48 09/06/01

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On September 06, 2001 at 06:31:48, Uri Blass wrote:

>On September 06, 2001 at 05:39:22, Geo Disher wrote:
>
>>On September 05, 2001 at 22:43:29, Jay Rinde wrote:
>>
>>>On September 05, 2001 at 22:32:52, Chris Kantack wrote:
>>>
>>>>On September 05, 2001 at 15:24:56, Roy Eassa wrote:
>>>>>I think that was the original point.  Common people who make bets DON'T know
>>>>>much about chess.  The common conception is that computers are better than
>>>>>humans.  So the masses will bet against Kramnik, making the odds favorable for
>>>>>those of us who know better!
>>>>
>>>>I completely agree with what has been stated in this thread.   But what if Vegas
>>>>was looking for some kind of "point spread"?   That is, what will the final
>>>>match score be?   I believe most of us know Kramnik could go undefeated if he
>>>>wanted to.  But how will he play this match?   Will he keep the score close to
>>>>make it look good?   In other words, will Kramnik throw a few games to keep the
>>>>interest level up?   I would not be surprised if that was the plan.
>>>
>>>You must be joking!! Yes, you are joking.
>>
>>I don't believe he is joking and I agree that it would be in Kamniks interest
>>not to win all the games if he could.  It would appear that this match was much
>>diffrent than the Deep Blue Match if he put all his energy into this and won all
>>the games which I believe he might be able to do.  This could jeopardize the
>>interest in another match.  Anyway all this being said I would not like to bet
>>on the spread but on win or loss.  Kramnik to win.
>
>I believe that if kramnik can win all the games there is no
>reason for him not to do it.
>
>I do not think that there will be no interest in another match
>in the future if kramnik gets 100%
>
>Kasparov also got 100% against Deep thought and later
>there was an interest in another match of kasparov
>against deep blue.
>
>I expect kramnik to win the match but I do not believe that
>he can win all the games when he does not have the exact program.
>
>I think you simply underestimate the machine.
>
>A weaker version that did not use 8 proceesors drew 3-3 with
>GM heubner and I do not believe that
>kramnik can get 100% against huebner.
>
>Uri

Chess is not necessarily transitive.  Nothing says that if A beats B 100% of
the time, and B plays evenly with C 100% of the time, then A will beat C 100%
of the time.  Even the Elo calculations don't suggest that.

I don't think Kramnik will win every game.  But not because he can't.  Because
the match is set up in such a way that taking any risk should be avoided.  I
suspect he is smart enought and wise enough so that he will adopt a match
strategy that attempts to maximize money won without taking undue risks that
could backfire.




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