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Subject: Re: How close/accurate will the rating be in a 10 game match? - Basics!

Author: Rolf Tueschen

Date: 03:18:11 08/26/02

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On August 25, 2002 at 12:00:06, Peter Fendrich wrote:

>On August 25, 2002 at 07:59:54, Kurt Utzinger wrote:
>
>>Please have a look at
>>
>>http://ccc.it.ro/search/ccc.php?art_id=217174
>>
>>Regards
>>Kurt
>

=============================================================================
>These tables are not accurate at all for the lines covering only few games.
=============================================================================

So, the tables are not correct (for the cases when you only have few, very few
games!), "because" the tables require normal distribution. So far so good. Now
you are argueing, let's take binominal or trinominal, and then we could get rid
of the limitations when you have very few cases (like in SSDF)? I hope I had no
language interferences?

Without agitation let me make this very clear. Any attempt to show something
reasonable out of only very few cases (like in SSDF) is a myst. The limitations
out of very few cases is absolutely given. There is no way or "trick" to heal
that.

There is only one single remedy and that is the higher number of cases. And
therefore the actual practice of SSDF is meaningless. And no adding would help
you out of this mess since you are presenting over 30000 games but these games
come from totally incomparable entities. But you could have known this before.
The adding of games in human chess is a completely different process.

BTW let me repeat the question where you take the validity from in SSDF. What do
you measure? And how did you find control mechanisms?

Also interesting could be where the similarities in Swedish ELO and human chess
ELO are coming from? Is this decided by definition? When was it done?

Rolf Tueschen





>They are based on the normal distribution that is used as an approximate value
>for the trinomial distribution. For as few games as 10 or 20 you can't rely on
>this. Maybe you could start hope for some accuracy when reaching 30-50 games.
>With accuracy I mean here the ability to approximate the Trinomial distribution
>with the Normal distribution. Number of games have an impact in the distribution
>itself as well but that is covered by the tables.
>
>Peter



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