Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 09:10:53 09/27/02
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On September 27, 2002 at 11:44:29, Gerrit Reubold wrote: >On September 27, 2002 at 11:35:22, Rolf Tueschen wrote: > >>On September 27, 2002 at 11:09:41, Gerrit Reubold wrote: >> >>>Perhaps we should play such a game against each other, the one who is right will >>>get rich, the other will get poor :-) >>> >>>Greetings, Gerrit >> >>Gerrit, there is no game at all. There is one single trial. Will you be ready to >>consider now? > >A single event is a game, too. > >> >>Rolf Tueschen >> >>P.S. In a long serie of many trials, in the end the strategy to always switch is >>the best, right? But not in the single event. There it's 50:50. > >Of course I would be willing to play a game with only a single event. I don't >understand why you make a difference between probabilities of single events and >probabilities of events which are in a series of events. > >Greetings, >Gerrit That is not for making people confused but it's simple maths. Since you asked for the claimed SSDF relevance, let me explain that I have their technique in mind when I see people quickly making their simulations. The problem for the candidate in the game show however has no aspects allowing probability researches. I think I proved that the take-away of 1 door or 8 cups or 998999 doors diesn't change that after this the two remaining "things" have the same "probability" namely 1/2. I see also people make typical mistakes in relation to the apples and beans warning. They argue that the moment the candidate had chosen a door, then this door is from now on by definition no longer a member of the doors on the other side. So it has become a "frafra" and then hen the host is taking away doors on the one side, it's clear that our frafr can't get some propbability point back like all the other over 900000 doors!Of course this is a complete delusion. The same delusion when SSDF is making a ranking list out of different species individuals. We have 8 modern combinations. With all the stuff involved and we have embryos and saurians and intelligent sand and whatever. And all play chess games against each other! And this is accepted because the actual best and commercialy interesting progs are on the 8 best places. Big surprise, no?! Rolf Tueschen
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