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Subject: Re: how not to calculate performance

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 23:12:51 10/23/04

Go up one level in this thread


On October 24, 2004 at 01:47:54, Stephen A. Boak wrote:

>On October 23, 2004 at 18:47:26, Vincent Lejeune wrote:
>
>>On October 23, 2004 at 16:37:37, Stephen A. Boak wrote:
>>
>>>On October 22, 2004 at 18:52:13, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>
>>>>On October 22, 2004 at 18:30:34, James T. Walker wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On October 22, 2004 at 13:32:57, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>go to the following link
>>>>>>
>>>>>>http://georgejohn.bcentralhost.com/TCA/perfrate.html
>>>>>>
>>>>>>enter 1400 for 12 opponents
>>>>>>enter 0 for your total score
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Your performance is 1000 but if you enter 1 to your total score your performance
>>>>>>is only 983.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>It seems that the program in that link assume that when the result is 100% or 0%
>>>>>>your performance is 400 elo less that your weakest opponent but when your score
>>>>>>is not 100% it has not that limit so they get illogical results.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Uri
>>>>>
>>>>>My take on this is they are using a bad formula or have screwed up the program
>>>>>to calculate the Rp.
>>>>>The USCF uses Rp=Rc + 400(W-L)/N
>>>>
>>>>It seems that the USCF does not do it in that way
>>>>
>>>>They admit that the formula is not correct for players who won all their games
>>>>
>>>>Note:  In the case of a perfect or zero score the performance rating is
>>>>estimated as either 400 points higher or lower, respectively, than the rating of
>>>>highest or lowest rated opponent.
>>>>
>>>>It is probably better to estimate the preformance based on comparison to  the
>>>>case that the player did almost perfect score.
>>>>
>>>>Uri
>>>
>>>Dear Uri,
>>>What is the *correct* formula for a player who has won (or lost) all his games?
>>>:)
>>>Regards,
>>>--Steve
>>
>>
>>For such a player, the error margin = infinity
>>
>>the perf = average opp +400 to +infinity
>
>Thanks, Vincent.  I know the formula well.  :)
>
>I was poking fun at Uri (just teasing) for complaining about 'logic' when in
>fact the formula for all wins or all losses is purely arbitrary.
>
>[I've read that Uri is a mathematician, so I like to occasionally jump in and
>comment when he seems to overlook something basic.  All in good fun--I
>appreciate his postings and chess programming contributions.]
>
>I asked Uri what formula would he suggest as 'correct'.

I think that it is possible to calculate the performance of a player that get
1/2 point instead of 0 point and use the result as an upper bound for the
performance of the player that got 0 points.

It is not done.

Another idea is to assume probability of win draw loss for every difference in
rating and to calculate the maximal rating that the probability to get 0 points
is 50% or more than it.

This is going to be the performance of player who got 0 points.

More generally I can define
Performance of a player who got m point out of n points  as the rating that
the probability to get more than m points(or exactly m points if m=n) is equal
to the probability to get less than m points(or exactly m points if m=0).


Uri



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