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Subject: Same as now, or better

Author: Pete R.

Date: 14:45:50 11/30/99

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I don't see Linux mounting a serious challenge to Windows anytime soon, or
perhaps ever.

Linux is technically superior to Windows 95 or 98 (with the difference in
application support this is irrelevant though) but comparisons with Windows NT
are not so easy.  The few complaints I have about NT will be addressed in
Windows 2000, and once Win2000 is the norm arguments about technical superiority
will be the province of supergeeks, while most of the world will not see enough
of a technical difference to make this much of an issue.  In other words, Linux
will be cool, but not so much better (if at all) than Windows that it's worth
switching. What will be left then is application support, technical support, and
features.  The Windows 2000 platform will have even more of all the myriad
features businesses want, along with a world of third party apps and full tech
support for everything.  Windows will have directory services that integrate
with Cisco routers, automated software distribution, automated regeneration of
corrupted configurations, and on and on and on and on.

The government will have zero impact, unless they force MS to port Office to
Linux.  That's about the only thing that will really have an impact on the
competitive landscape.  Office enjoys about a 95% market share, and the average
user doesn't want to learn a new office package when they've been using MS
Office for 10 years.  Techies that can learn new software overnight can have
their Linux and StarOffice and whatnot at home, but at the corporate office it's
still going to be MS Office running on Windows.

Application support is another issue.  Writing things for free in your spare
time is one thing, but coding for Windows puts food on the table, as does IT
support for Microsoft products. :)  MS has a huge and growing army of MCSEs and
other support people for their products, who end up not only making businesses
feel comfortable that they can find support people everywhere, but who actually
willingly market for Microsoft through their efforts.  Application developers do
the same: the more apps there are for an OS, the more clout it has, the more
people want to develop for it, and the momentum rolls on.

As far as updates to Linux itself, I have my doubts about people continuing to
volunteer their time and effort writing free stuff for Linux when guys with
business degrees set up a company like Red Hat and become overnight billionaires
with an IPO. :) Yeah, they tried to distribute some of it to people who worked
on Linux, but why continue to make other people rich on your altruistic
efforts??  I think the whole mindset of a cool worldwide opensource project will
be torpedoed by this.  So then companies like RedHat will have to rely primarily
on their own paid programming teams to get the OS competitive with Windows, and
MS has more money, more clout, a dominant market position, and a long head
start.

In short I think Linux is always going to be a niche thing, like people that get
their skirts blown up by using Macs.  If it helps light a fire under MS to
improve their products, so much the better, but that's all it will ever amount
to.  Just my opinion.



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