Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 17:12:27 04/23/98
Go up one level in this thread
On April 23, 1998 at 09:20:34, Don Gaetke wrote: > >On April 23, 1998 at 08:13:32, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On April 22, 1998 at 23:56:17, Don Gaetke wrote: >> >>> >>>On April 22, 1998 at 22:10:34, Joe McCarron wrote: >>> >>>>I wonder what computer and software will be the first Chess World >>>>Champion. Does anyone want to venture a guess when that will be? >>>>Evidently IBM has no interest in trying to attain the title for deep >>>>blue. >>>> >>>>in response to your post If we had better data on how well micros do >>>>against GM's, then the answer to the current poll question would provide >>>>the answer to your poll question. >>>> >>>>It is beyond my unserstandign why we don't have better information on >>>>how well these computers do against GM's. I mean we all know IBM was >>>>afraid to play Deep blue against GM's more regularly but these other >>>>software programs would seem to jump at the chance to butt heads with >>>>GM's. What is the hold up? >>> >>>In DBll's case as with the previous programs DB,DTll, and DT, there has >>>always been a strong need to keep things "hush, hush", in order to have >>>the greatest chance to prove the point that IBM had something unique >>>among computers. It was not advantageous to disclose any performance >>>than was absolutely neccessary. >>> >>>It may yet be that the micro's will threaten the esteem of IBM's not so >>> minor accomplishment. After all if a PC can beat any top 5 player in >>>the world in a real match, then it takes away from IBM's SuperComputing >>>achievement in the eyes of the general public. >>> >>>Don >>> >>>P.S. CCC is such a breath of fresh air. :-) >> >> >> >>A couple of points: (1) Until the "IBM" days, information about the >>internals was readily available. A chapter of a book here, a journal >>article there... chiptest/deep thought/deep thought 2 and so forth were >>well written-up. (2) today, there's little chance of a micro beating a >>top-5 GM in a match. It is unlikely in a single game, unless the match >>is long enough (and I'm *not* talking about blitz games, there they have >>a chance).. > >Actually, I was referring to the "performance" on the board. >Information on DeepeBlue2 as a chess player has been scant, which is >consistant with the overall history of the project. > >Average GM's are already threatened today at tournament level, in 6 >months to a year the top 5 will be as well thanks to some serious speed >increases just over the horizon. > >Don IMHO, you should change 6 months to a year to 6-10 years. The Micros are *not* a factor of two away from playing evenly with GM players yet. Not even close... We already have a PII/400 at the office. Intel says 450 late this year, and (possibly) Merced next year. We already have machines as fast as merced... they are spelled "alpha"... no one's *close* to a GM yet...
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