Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 10:31:39 01/07/00
Go up one level in this thread
On January 07, 2000 at 13:23:07, Chris Carson wrote: >Albert, > >All ELO ratings are calculated that way (SSDF, FIDE, PCA, ...). > >They are all based on opponents ratings at the time. :) > >I missed your point. However, I respect your opinion and agree to >disagree. :) > >So tell me, > >What do you think the rating of Hiarcs 7.32 is in FIDE? (Not Rebel Century) >Why do you think that? Do you consider that a valid and reliable estimate? >Why? How confident are you with that estimate? Why? > >Perhaps I have missed something. Convince me to change my mind, but please >do not tell me I am wrong just because you disagree, give me a better estimate >and a better way to prove the estimate is correct. I am not looking for >the SSDF is bad argument, I am looking for a better estimate that stands >on its own and does not need to bash SSDF or someone elses opinion. :) > >Best Regards, >Chris Carson My estimate still has not changed. I think that the top programs would probably settle in at 2450 or so, maybe as high as 2500 if they are lucky. But no higher. And I think that the top programs would do fairly similarly against humans (although I think some of the 'fast searchers' would have serious problems once the GM/IM players figured them out). IE on the SSDF list the top 10 programs might be separated by a span of 150 rating points. Against humans I think this would compress to 50 or so for the most part... And I think it would steadily drop if the engines remain static. Humans learn. Computers don't.
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