Author: Graham Laight
Date: 13:25:20 11/07/98
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On November 06, 1998 at 20:41:05, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On November 06, 1998 at 18:48:39, odell hall wrote: > >>I am interested in knowing, if even by a wild guess when a program with the >>strength of deepblue will be available to the public? Five years? or maybe >>three? > >Here's the basic math... DB searches about 250M nodes per second. Factor >in its evaluation, which is probably at least 10x as complex as what is done >in the micros, so this is 2500M nodes per second equivalent. A good micro >today would do 250K nodes per second... 2500M/250K = 10,000... so we need >to get a micro up to 10,000 times faster. If you figure the current doubling >every 1.5 years, log2(10000)= 13-14. So 1.5 * 14 == 21 years, roughly. > >However, it is doubtful the doubling every 18 months is going to continue, >so this is easily a lower bound on the time-frame... If you want to factor in >new software improvements, this might get shaved a few years... but it isn't >going to happen in 3-5 period... I'm sorry, but I feel the urge to disagree. The evidence of the play in the 1997 tournament against Kasparov is not compelling enough to support this assertion. In game 1, it lost through disappointing play. In game 2, Gary resigned from a drawn position - a potential draw that some of the micro software would not have allowed. In games 3, 4, and 5, DB looked beaten, but GK couldn't put it away. In game 6, GK messed up the opening, leading to his defeat. GK has previously been beaten by a 90 Mhz Pentium at G25 time setting. Since the GK tournament, DB has been cowering in fear - not being allowed to play another man or machine in public. No better commercial chess computers until 2019? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
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