Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 17:01:27 11/22/03
Go up one level in this thread
On November 22, 2003 at 16:00:44, Dieter Buerssner wrote: >On November 22, 2003 at 15:48:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On November 22, 2003 at 03:52:25, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote: >> >>>On November 22, 2003 at 00:55:50, Slater Wold wrote: >>> >>>>If the 233mhz doesn't die first, here's my prediction: >>>> >>>>You play MORE than 12 games. Crafty wins, but with so many draws, >it'll "cancel" any *real* proof the match might have given. >>> >>>Nonsense. If he plays on till the score DIFFERENCE is 6 points, >>>it's staticstically a very valid result (somewhere >90 or >95% >>>certainty). >> >>The point is that if Crafty wins 6 games after playing 6 games, you >>get _one_ rating. If it wins 6 games out of 1000 games, you get >>a totally different rating that doesn't prove much about the +6 game >>edge... > >For the rating - yes. For the question "how certain can I be that the winner is >really better", it depends. When the remaining 994 games were draw, the >confidince level for Crafty beeing better (in the sense: will win any match) is >just as good as in a plain 6-0 without any draws. The rating will not show that. >The example might be not so good, because one really cannot calculate a rating >difference with 6-0. But say 11-1 and 1011-1001 give the same confidence of the >winner beeing better when in the first case it was +11 =0 -1 and in the second >case +11 =2000 -1. The calculated rating difference (which tries to predict >scores of matches, not the probability that one is better) will be very >different again. > >Regards, >Dieter I disagree. 6-0-0 vs 6-0-1000 are way different results. And the rating and rating error bar would be far different. With a 6 0 result I would conclude the 6 side is significantly better. with 6 wins and 1000 draws I would not conclude _either_ was better with any confidence.
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