Author: Tom Kerrigan
Date: 10:05:59 05/25/00
Go up one level in this thread
On May 24, 2000 at 18:03:06, Ernst A. Heinz wrote: >Hi Dann, > >>In these experiments, you varied the depth from 5 to 12 plies, but in the "goes >>deep" experiments, it was deeper, if I recall correctly. > >Yes, right -- but so what? > >The "go deep" experiments and the new self-play experiment are not >really related to one another, or are they?! > >>In the earlier experiments, it seemed to level out. > >In _which_ experiments did _what_ seem to level out? > >>I would like to see control matches where the plies are equal. >>IOW, 5:5, 6:6 up to 12:12. > >As an answer please see the paragraph about "Engine Calibration" >on page 9. > >`` [...] Scaling the engine calibration to other fixed depths > requires additional calibration matches at these depths. We did > not deem the according effort worthwhile because it is quite > unlikely that the Black/White behaviour of "Fritz 6" at other > fixed depths differs substantially from the one at 8 plies. '' > >>In that way, you will know what the gain of the extra ply is. >>I don't think you >>can tell clearly strictly from the data given. > >The confidence intervals from Table 6 put bounds on the >_differences_ in real winning probabilities between versions >of "Fritz 6" searching to fixed depths "X+1 <=> X". > >This very difference exactly quantifies the gain in playing >strength from depth "X" to "X+1". > >>For example, in your 12 <==> 11 experiment, you show 35.71% wins, 52.38% draws, >>and 11.9% losses. What would the result be for 12:12? > >Does not really matter -- but please see above regarding >"Engine Calibration". > >Which reasons do you have to doubt that "Fritz 6" against >itself at any same depth "X <=> X" exhibits significantly >different behaviour than at depth "8 <=> 8"? But the same question can be asked of your experiment. Why would you believe that the "8 <=> 9" ply results would vary from the "11 <=> 12" ply results? -Tom
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