Author: Mark Young
Date: 15:08:49 06/26/05
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On June 26, 2005 at 16:25:35, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >On June 26, 2005 at 15:02:56, I Hart SanQuentin wrote: > >>On June 26, 2005 at 14:27:44, stuart taylor wrote: >> >>>No, of cause not! Not enough games! It needs atLEAST 500 games between the two >>>to get a rough idea. >>> >>>S.Taylor >> >>No not 500 games a 1,275,326 games otherwise there is no likelyhood that the >>comp is better than mickey, it was just the most amazing streak of bad luck you >>ever saw that he is down 4.5 to .5 > > >In case you made ironic remarks let me state that indeed such a result does not >mean anything (in reality and also in statistics). You dont believe me? Well, >remember the match between JUNIOR and FRITZ a couple of years ago. JUNIOR was >clearly leading and FRITZ still won the match. In short: 6 games is nothing >relevant. As you most likely know. It is not just the number of games. It is the score that also must be considered. The closer the score the more games that are needed to show which player is really stronger. If GM Adams draws tomorrows game, and the score ends 5-1 for Hydra. There is a almost a 90% certainty that Hydra was stronger then GM Adams. Who is #7 in the world. If GM Adam loses, then we can say with even higher certainty then 90%. That Hydra is stronger then GM Adams. IF Hydra loses tomorrow with a 4.5 - 1.5 winning score for Hydra, I agree. The results are nothing relevant. Meaning you could not say that Hydra is stronger then GM Adams with any kind of great certainty.
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