Author: Chris Carson
Date: 09:53:59 06/01/02
Go up one level in this thread
On June 01, 2002 at 11:19:26, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On June 01, 2002 at 07:57:45, Chris Carson wrote: > >>On June 01, 2002 at 00:50:25, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On May 31, 2002 at 07:16:45, Chris Carson wrote: >>> >>>>Dann, >>>> >>>>If you believe that ratings inflation exists, then do the stats/research and >>>>present a proof. It may exist and there is plenty of data to look at. If you >>>>can show this, it would prove your point. You should be able to establish >>>>averages for today, 5 years back, 10 years back, 20 years back. Show N >>>>population, break out #GM's, #IM's, ... Show the std deviation. If there is >>>>inflation, you can show it to be significant and establish a 95% confidence >>>>level. You can show the rate of inflaciton over time, factors that influence >>>>the inflation (based on data not opinion) and make recommendations for >>>>correcting this. It would be impressive. The records are there, you may have >>>>to dig them out, but I "know" the data is there. Spend some time, and then >>>>please present your findings, I would really like to see what you find and what >>>>you have to say after you discover it. >>> >>> >>>There is _no_ way to prove it. Because the "old pool" is gone and can't be >>>compared to the "new pool" to see if players from the "old pool" get a higher >>>or lower rating when they jump into the "new pool". >> >>This is hogwash, there is no problem comparing these, just saying different >>"pools" over and over does not change it. The ratings were never disconnected >>or derived from different "pools". some people left and some new ones added, but >>there was mostly overlap for most of the time, not different. > > >I gave a direct reference to Elo's book which is derived from sampling >theory. > >Can you give a reference to say "this is hogwash"?? > >I didn't think so... http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?233311
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