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Subject: Re: Is there a rating inflation?

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 09:53:59 06/01/02

Go up one level in this thread


On June 01, 2002 at 11:19:26, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On June 01, 2002 at 07:57:45, Chris Carson wrote:
>
>>On June 01, 2002 at 00:50:25, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On May 31, 2002 at 07:16:45, Chris Carson wrote:
>>>
>>>>Dann,
>>>>
>>>>If you believe that ratings inflation exists, then do the stats/research and
>>>>present a proof.  It may exist and there is plenty of data to look at.  If you
>>>>can show this, it would prove your point.   You should be able to establish
>>>>averages for today, 5 years back, 10 years back, 20 years back.  Show N
>>>>population, break out #GM's, #IM's, ...  Show the std deviation.  If there is
>>>>inflation, you can show it to be significant and establish a 95% confidence
>>>>level.  You can show the rate of inflaciton over time, factors that influence
>>>>the inflation (based on data not opinion) and make recommendations for
>>>>correcting this.  It would be impressive.  The records are there, you may have
>>>>to dig them out, but I "know" the data is there.  Spend some time, and then
>>>>please present your findings, I would really like to see what you find and what
>>>>you have to say after you discover it.
>>>
>>>
>>>There is _no_ way to prove it.  Because the "old pool" is gone and can't be
>>>compared to the "new pool" to see if players from the "old pool" get a higher
>>>or lower rating when they jump into the "new pool".
>>
>>This is hogwash, there is no problem comparing these, just saying different
>>"pools" over and over does not change it.  The ratings were never disconnected
>>or derived from different "pools". some people left and some new ones added, but
>>there was mostly overlap for most of the time, not different.
>
>
>I gave a direct reference to Elo's book which is derived from sampling
>theory.
>
>Can you give a reference to say "this is hogwash"??
>
>I didn't think so...

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