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Subject: Re: ELO fails at the extremes

Author: blass uri

Date: 03:33:21 01/30/99

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On January 30, 1999 at 01:28:51, KarinsDad wrote:

>On January 29, 1999 at 23:59:55, Peter Kappler wrote:
>
>>
>>I don't understand this statement.  The formula is valid regardless of the
>>rating difference.  I think what you are saying is that beyond a certain rating
>>differential, the win expectancy changes very slowly, and thus the significance
>>of the rating difference becomes less important.  At least I think this is what
>>you are saying...  :-)
>>
>>
>
>My meaning is as follows:
>
>Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231 (as per Dann's
>posting).
>
>This means that out of 100,000 players with an 1800 ELO (1900 USCF rated
>players), 315 of them should on average win (i.e. 315 wins or even more draws)
>against Garry Kasparov in standard tournament times if all 100,000 of them
>played him. This is total bull. It would be an amazing event if even one of them
>won (or even drew) against Garry Kasparov in standard tournament times.

I do not think it will be an amazing result.

Kasparov is a human and can do a stupid mistake if he play many games.
If kasparov is suddenly ill in a game and the opponent did a good opening
preperation against him then kasparov may lose.

I know a case when a 2000 elo player won a grandmaster in a tournament game
after less then 2 hours.
I asked him how did he do it and he replied that everything was opening
preperation.
The grandmaster fell into a trap(The 2000 player prepared at home)






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