Author: blass uri
Date: 03:33:21 01/30/99
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On January 30, 1999 at 01:28:51, KarinsDad wrote: >On January 29, 1999 at 23:59:55, Peter Kappler wrote: > >> >>I don't understand this statement. The formula is valid regardless of the >>rating difference. I think what you are saying is that beyond a certain rating >>differential, the win expectancy changes very slowly, and thus the significance >>of the rating difference becomes less important. At least I think this is what >>you are saying... :-) >> >> > >My meaning is as follows: > >Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231 (as per Dann's >posting). > >This means that out of 100,000 players with an 1800 ELO (1900 USCF rated >players), 315 of them should on average win (i.e. 315 wins or even more draws) >against Garry Kasparov in standard tournament times if all 100,000 of them >played him. This is total bull. It would be an amazing event if even one of them >won (or even drew) against Garry Kasparov in standard tournament times. I do not think it will be an amazing result. Kasparov is a human and can do a stupid mistake if he play many games. If kasparov is suddenly ill in a game and the opponent did a good opening preperation against him then kasparov may lose. I know a case when a 2000 elo player won a grandmaster in a tournament game after less then 2 hours. I asked him how did he do it and he replied that everything was opening preperation. The grandmaster fell into a trap(The 2000 player prepared at home)
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