Author: KarinsDad
Date: 08:22:59 01/30/99
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On January 30, 1999 at 06:33:21, blass uri wrote: [snip] >>My meaning is as follows: >> >>Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231 (as per Dann's >>posting). >> >>This means that out of 100,000 players with an 1800 ELO (1900 USCF rated >>players), 315 of them should on average win (i.e. 315 wins or even more draws) >>against Garry Kasparov in standard tournament times if all 100,000 of them >>played him. This is total bull. It would be an amazing event if even one of them >>won (or even drew) against Garry Kasparov in standard tournament times. > >I do not think it will be an amazing result. > >Kasparov is a human and can do a stupid mistake if he play many games. >If kasparov is suddenly ill in a game and the opponent did a good opening >preperation against him then kasparov may lose. > >I know a case when a 2000 elo player won a grandmaster in a tournament game >after less then 2 hours. >I asked him how did he do it and he replied that everything was opening >preperation. >The grandmaster fell into a trap(The 2000 player prepared at home) What level GM 2300, 2400, 2500, 2600? In any of these cases, the formula probabilities are: 300 3 in 20, 400 1 in 11, 500 1 in 20, 600 3 in 100. These statistical ranges may be close to accurate, but I doubt it. But you'll notice that all of these ranges are well within what we would expect to see in our lifetimes. It should be easy to see a 2000 ELO player beat a 2600 ELO player if it is 1 chance in 33. Sooner or later, you will see it. Maybe 10 times a year in the US. Even if it was 1 in 300, you would eventually expect to see it happen. Probably about once a year in the US. So, your example is anecdotal at best. You expect it to happen eventually. So instead, to illustrate my point, I was talking about a 1000 difference where the PRACTICAL chances are almost statistically 0, but the formula states that it is 1 in 317. Yes Kasparov could get sick and lose a game or two. But he would not lose 315 games out of 100,000 or 3 games out of 1000. I personally think that Kasparov could be on this deathbed and play 1000 games against 1000 1800 ELO players over the last year and a half of his life and win them all, but that is pure speculation. Again, it would be nice to analyze results of all of the rated games in the US for the last year. That would be a sample size of what, between 200,000 and 500,000 games? Give or take. That is what we need to find out if I am correct or not. KarinsDad
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