Author: James T. Walker
Date: 14:47:08 01/29/99
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It seems to me that it's not what Arpad Elo said that matters. It's his formula that counts. Since it is what determines the ratings it has to be true! Not that there is no probability of error but that since the formula gives you the rating based on the WE (Winning Expectancy) then the WE is correct by definition. Of course because of statistical probability people or computers will not always perform as per the WE. The point is that people and computers get their ratings from the same formula. The only thing imperical data will do is show that there is of course only probability not perfection. Maybe if you could gather the statistics from millions of games the the actual data and the probable data would be equal but don't bet the house on it. Jim Walker
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