Author: Matt Frank
Date: 13:46:20 01/29/99
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> >Ah, no. I do not understand your point. Are you saying that since Professor Elo >said that a 675 point difference should average to a 49 to 1 ratio, that this is >what should happen. No, just that those are the expected results (margin of error is not totally absent--especially with sample sizes in the dozens or even low hundreds of games). >I do not think that practically, that is the case. I think that the formula >starts getting more and more off once you get past the 300 to 400 point range. This may be so but I would have to be shown the evidence. Sorry, I am a logical positivist at heart :-) >If has never happened in my experience, nor for anyone I've ever known. I've >never had a B class player friend say, "Hey, I beat a master". Ever. Not even a >"Hey, I drew a master." comment. This is not to say that it has never happens, I >just have never heard of it happening (except in blitz and in one case in my >local club where a C class player beat an expert giving a simul, but she is also >an up and coming player and it was a simul) and I know quite a few chess players >around the country. With that anecdote and a dollar I can get you a double-chessburger :-) > >The generally used formula is just a rough approximation. The USCF could >probably analyze it's database and come up with a better formula (however, even >this would be suspect due to rating deflations due to up and coming players and >rating inflations due to floors, aging effects, and health effects). No measurement is perfect, I agree. However, the data supports that the elo ratings are reasonably robust over time and across people (machines?), although the USCF ratings have obviously been subject to some inflation in the last 20 years. >For computers, I wouldn't have a clue. Maybe some of the other people who test >them against each other would know something. That a good point and should also be answered empirically. Matt Frank
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