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Subject: Re: The importance of opening books -- a simple experiment

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 15:19:16 02/17/05

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On February 17, 2005 at 16:34:22, Sune Fischer wrote:

>On February 17, 2005 at 14:50:57, John Merlino wrote:
>
>>I can't believe I'm going to do this. But, to defend Vincent and Arturo to some
>>degree, I'm PRETTY SURE they were referring to a book that was specifically
>>designed to be played against a single opponent. Somebody please correct me if
>>I'm wrong.
>
>I don't believe it.
>
>These so called "killer books" are always used by very strong engines on top
>hardware.
>The killer books seem to work best against weaker engines on weaker hardware.
>Now isn't that odd? :)

Killer books are in most of the cases for rich people who can pay for book
makers so it is not a surprise that they work against engines with weaker
hardware that do not have time to prepare.

If the opponent also prepares a special book then it is hard to use a killer
book against him because you do not know what he is going to play.


>
>Somehow you must at least factor the engine+hardware strength out of the
>equation before you can say anything about the book being killer or not.
>
>Also these books are not subject for massive statistical testing, they are
>private and only used rarely which in makes it all a big load of guesswork.
>
>But think about 700 Elo, seriously that's is like getting a rook up in the
>opening. I don't believe it.

I also do not beliebe in 700 elo but I certainly believe that they can improve
the performance by 100-200 elo in a tournament when part of the opponents.

If you have statistics of  a lot of games that you get 70% against some program
with line A and 50% against the same program with line B then choosing line A is
important.

If you have similar statistics for many programs then it may give you
significant increase in performance in tournaments.

Even with no special preperation against specific opponent you may have
statistics that your program  score 60% with 1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.f3 and only 50%
against the same opponents with 1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.e5 so of course opening
preperation can help significantly in tournament.

I think that it is boring to work about calculating all this statistics so I do
not plan to do it by myself and there are enough other improvements that can be
done in the engine.

Note that the statistics may be changed if the engine is improved so I condiser
all the statistics as not important because I do not see special importance for
what will happpen in tournaments in the near future with movei and I do not plan
to win tournaments anyway(movei is too weak for that and getting better place is
not something so important)

Note that learning for movei is based on trying to repeat lines that movei won
in wbec and avoiding line that it lost.

This learning hopefully help the engine to perform better in WBEC that I
consider as clearly more important than tournaments like WCCC or CCT

Uri



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