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Subject: Re: The importance of opening books -- a simple experiment

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 13:34:22 02/17/05

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On February 17, 2005 at 14:50:57, John Merlino wrote:

>I can't believe I'm going to do this. But, to defend Vincent and Arturo to some
>degree, I'm PRETTY SURE they were referring to a book that was specifically
>designed to be played against a single opponent. Somebody please correct me if
>I'm wrong.

I don't believe it.

These so called "killer books" are always used by very strong engines on top
hardware.
The killer books seem to work best against weaker engines on weaker hardware.
Now isn't that odd? :)

Somehow you must at least factor the engine+hardware strength out of the
equation before you can say anything about the book being killer or not.

Also these books are not subject for massive statistical testing, they are
private and only used rarely which in makes it all a big load of guesswork.

But think about 700 Elo, seriously that's is like getting a rook up in the
opening. I don't believe it.

I believe you can get lucky once or twice in a big tournament with a "killer
line", especially against weak amateur engines, but even so this doesn't equate
to 700 Elo.

>So, the only accurate way to test this (regardless of your argument that it
>doesn't need to be tested at all due to "common sense" -- which may be a fine
>argument but I'm not too sure it holds up scientifically :-) would be to create
>a book that is designed to exploit the weaknesses in Hiarcs' book, and then test
>with that. Then compare the results to using NO book, which, I believe, Vincent
>was arguing reflected the other end of the 700-point range.

And if your test shows less than 700 Elo you have shown what?
That you need a better book? :)

>Will it show the possibility of a 700-point ELO gain? I very highly doubt it.
>But I do think it will result in a much bigger difference than the 3 points out
>of 100 that came from the first test.

3 of 100 was less than I had expected, the time handicap alone should amount to
that much. Perhaps because the engine gets to play something it likes all the
time that sort of makes up for it.

-S.
>jm



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