Author: Graham Laight
Date: 06:36:13 10/13/04
Go up one level in this thread
On October 13, 2004 at 09:09:05, Peter Skinner wrote: >On October 13, 2004 at 07:51:42, Graham Laight wrote: > >>I refer you to http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391364 , and I >>would be interested to read your comments! > >One tournament would hardly be a basis to determine the strength of a human or a >computer. This is a good point. However - the results I'm getting back from the simulator (linked above) are seriously at odds with some assumptions that some members in this thread seem to hold: 1. That the computers at Bilbao had a roughly equal chance of winning. If you create a high probability of winning (in order to justify Hydra and Fritz's results), then you end up with a startlingly low probability of Junior getting the low score that it did - EVEN WITH ONLY 4 GAMES. 2. Joachim used a 50% probability of winning in his post to get acceptable probabilities for the 3 different outcomes (3.5/4 x 2 and 1.5/4). However - this is at odds with what Dr Hyatt wrote - which is that when contemplating computer chess strength, I should "think lower" (http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391290) IMO, in terms of what members have been writing in this thread, these are VERY SIGNIFICANT points. -g >In such case the biggest factor is luck, or lack there of. That is why rating >lists are based on large number of games, vs a pool of players. > >In the human pools there are so many factors to consider. Fatigue, stress, >dehydration are some of the factors. > >Take tennis for instance. The #1 women's player in the world just announced that >she is cutting her season short due to fatigue. The same can happen in just one >tournament. A player could be fatigued due to schedule, flight arrangements, or >the hooker he purchased the night before keeping him up all night. :) > >There are just to many unknown factors that one simply can not base a strength >assessment on just one tourament. > >I use a "season" of results to determine what programs I will be purchasing, >namely the IPCCC, WCCC, ICCT, and the SSDF list results to determine strength. >If one program were to win 3/4 events it is likely that such program is the >strongest. Especially when looking at the results it beat the #2 and #3 >competitors on a regular basis. > >Peter
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