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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 17:33:25 01/12/05

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On January 12, 2005 at 20:25:24, Uri Blass wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>
>>>Dann,
>>>
>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>
>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>
>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>
>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>that).
>>
>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>
>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>moot.
>
>The second assumption is also not correct.
>
>By the same logic alphabeta can cut less than 2^30 positions in KRB vs KR to
>2^15 positions but it does not happen and solving some KRB vs KR position with
>no KRB vs KR tablebases is not something that you need 2^15 nodes for it.

No.  The second assumption would be true if the first was true.  This was
formally PROVEN by Donald Knuth.  In a perfectly ordered alpha-beta solution
tree, the number of nodes is proportional to the square root of the nodes in the
full tree.

If there were 10^120 in the full tree, then about 10^60 would be in the solution
tree.

It can be less than that.  But it cannot be more.



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