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Subject: Re: But Not Yet As Good As Deep Blue '97

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 07:33:34 07/20/00

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On July 20, 2000 at 09:12:04, Chris Carson wrote:

>On July 20, 2000 at 08:25:13, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>[snip]
>
>>I am not even sure about the 25%.  If DB has a 90% chance of beating every
>>program there, and I think that is reasonable, then in a 5 round event, the
>>probability of winning every round is .9 ^ 5 which is 60% for 5 rounds.  At
>>a WMCCC-type event, we go for maybe 10 rounds... that comes out to a 34% chance
>>of winning all games.
>>
>>However, as I have mentioned before, I saw DT  forfeit in round one at the last
>>ACM event, and _still_ it won the tournament, regardless of the hardware others
>>were using.
>
>Show me the data that shows DB can beat today's programs on
>today's fastest hardware 90% of the time at 40/2.  I do not want
>opinion here, you say 90% of the time, that is a bold statement
>and I want to see hard data support.
>
>DJ 6 on 8x-700 => TPR=2702
>97 DB          => TPR=2862
>
>A difference of 160 points in favor of 97 DB.  That does not imply
>that 97 DB can beat DJ6 90% of the time.  That gives a 72% probability,
>keeping in mind that 50% means equality, 72-50=22% or about what
>Ed said!  A TPR of +366 points is required for a 90% expectation.
>You must filp a very weighted coin.  :)
>
>Best Regards,
>Chris Carson


That is an extrapolation based on simple fact.  For 10 years, deep thought
accomplished that at ACM and WCCC events.  DB is about 100 times faster than
Deep Thought.  Since deep thought played its last game about 5 years ago, I
don't think you will find that machines have gotten 100 times faster over the
past five years.

The math is pretty simple.

Your ratings are meaningless.  You will find that the rating between two
computer programs is completely unrelated to the ratings two programs produce
when playing humans...  You only have to look at some of the SSDF numbers and
compare them to human tournament results to see that...

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